How Much Holiday Packaging Will You Need?

4th Nov 2026

Shipping department packages with blue bows

A Simple Guide for Small Businesses

Holiday orders can add up quickly. Running out of a go-to box, mailer, label, or roll of tape in the middle of a busy shipping week can slow everything down.

Fortunately, estimating your holiday packaging needs doesn’t have to be complicated. A few numbers can help you build a practical plan.

Start With Expected Holiday Orders

First, estimate how many orders you expect to ship. If you have last year’s numbers, use them as a starting point and consider what has changed. Are sales growing? Have you added products? Are upcoming marketing efforts likely to increase demand?

If this is your first holiday season, use recent order volume to create a reasonable estimate for the weeks ahead. You don’t need a perfect prediction—just a useful number to plan around.

Know What You Use Per Order

Next, create a simple packaging “recipe” for your typical shipment. That might include:

If your products ship differently, create a few recipes for your most common order types.

For example, if you expect 500 orders and approximately half typically ship in mailers, 30% in small boxes, and 20% in larger boxes, estimate each packaging type separately.

Remember that the right box depends on more than size. Product dimensions, weight, fragility, and protection requirements should also factor into your selection.

Do the Math

A simple formula gives you a starting point:

Expected orders × packaging used per order = estimated packaging need

For 500 orders that each use one box, one label, and approximately 1 yard of tape, that means:

500 boxes
500 labels
500 yards of tape

Then consider adding a reasonable cushion for unexpected demand, packing mistakes, damaged materials, or replenishment time.

For example, adding a 10% cushion would bring those estimates to 550 boxes, 550 labels, and 550 yards of tape.

That 10% is only an example. The right amount depends on your sales patterns, storage space, and how quickly you can replenish supplies.

Check What You Already Have

Before ordering, compare your forecast with your current inventory.

Count packaging by type and size, not just total quantity. Having plenty of boxes doesn’t help if they aren’t the sizes your holiday orders require.

Use another simple formula:
Estimated need – usable inventory = quantity to order

If you expect to need 550 boxes and already have 175:
550 – 175 = 375 boxes to order

Repeat the process for your most-used mailers, tape, labels, and protective packaging.

Don’t Overlook the Consumables

Boxes and mailers are easy to count. Tape, labels, and protective materials can be easier to underestimate.

Look at how quickly you currently use them. If one roll of tape typically handles about 100 similar shipments, for example, you can use that rate to estimate how many rolls you’ll need.

Also consider the specific supplies your shipments require. Different tapes are designed for different package weights, surfaces, temperatures, storage conditions, and application methods. Shipping operations may also require more than standard address labels, including handling, inventory, integrated, blockout, or hazardous labels.

Check Your Numbers as You Go

Your forecast doesn’t have to be perfect on day one.

As holiday orders come in, compare what you expected to use with what you’re actually using. Pay particular attention to your fastest-moving box sizes, mailers, tape, labels, and protective materials.

If something is moving faster than expected, you’ll have a chance to adjust before you run out.

Your Holiday Packaging Check

Before things get busy, make sure you can answer these questions:

How many orders do we expect?
What packaging does each major order type require?
What do we already have?
How much additional packaging do we need?
Which supplies are we using fastest?
What cushion makes sense for our business?

You don’t need to predict every order. You just need enough information to make a smarter plan.

Good Things Are Shipping. Be Ready to Send Them.

A little forecasting now can help keep your shipping operation moving when holiday orders pick up. Start with expected orders, calculate what you’ll use, subtract what you already have, and keep an eye on your inventory as the season progresses.

And if you need help finding the right packaging for what you’re sending, Packaging Price is here to help.